Why Gary Johnson’s New Mexico numbers give hope to Ron Paul


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A fascinating poll put out last week by Public Policy Polling (PPP) shows that Republican presidential candidate Gary Johnson is polling at 11% in his home state of New Mexico. The libertarian leaning Johnson, who was Governor of New Mexico from 1995-2003, has views that align closely with presidential candidate Ron Paul. Johnson openly supported Paul in the 2008 Republican primary. Johnson even spoke at the large rally Paul held in St. Paul in 2008. In the same poll Paul received 8%, which is below his national average of 10%.

The interesting portion of the poll however is the breakdown of the self described moderate vote. Johnson crushes the competition in the moderate column with 26% in the field of eight with 10% undecided. Paul received only 7% from the moderate voters.

Another interesting aspect of the poll were the second choices for Johnson and Paul voters. Paul voters chose Johnson as their second choice 33% of the time, or 3 times more than any other candidate. While only 11% of Johnson voters chose Paul as their second choice. When you put these numbers in the context of the numbers that have been coming out of Iowa and New Hampshire in the last week things begin to look very interesting for Ron Paul.

In the states where Ron Paul has been in control of his message through a well organized ground game and large ad buys, namely Iowa and New Hampshire, he is doing extraordinarily well. In states such as New Mexico, where he relies on broadcast media's portrayal of him to win over voters he can barely crack double digits. But the key in New Mexico is that Gary Johnson's message is a hit with moderates but only because they saw how Johnson govern their state for the eight years he was in office.

The biggest addition to the Paul campaign in this cycle are the slick television ads. The Paul campaign has been able to effectively control their message by purchasing time for ads on everything from Paul's plan to cut $1 trillion in his first year as President to his pro life stance to accusing Newt Gingrich of hypocrisy.

The Paul campaign has raised (as I write) $3.5 million this weekend alone. A big chunk of that will likely go toward broadcast ad buys. Bob Wilkens wrote an article a few weeks back saying that television ads may be what breaks Ron Paul through with his toughest critics, namely elderly voters. The same is true of so-called independent and moderate voters. Once they hear Paul's message from straight from Ron Paul his poll numbers benefit.

If Paul is able to fundraise off of a win or place in both Iowa and New Hampshire, the ceiling on his national numbers could start to dissolve with the ability to purchase more and more large market broadcast ad buys.

The floor of Paul's support is as important as the perceived ceiling when it comes to his national numbers. Anything short of a disaster in Iowa and New Hampshire will be fundraising booms for Paul. There is a huge upside and not a large downside risk when it comes to his fundraising capability in relation to his performance in the first two states, so I will be watching how the Paul campaign attempts to control expectations leading up to the first two states. I will also be watching how establishment outlets try to hedge their bets and perhaps raise expectations for Paul to beyond the attainable.

Additional Reading:

The Revolution Will Not Be Televised by Joe Trippi

Liberty Defined by Ron Paul

The Revolution: A Manifesto by Ron Paul

Filed Under: FeaturedNational Politics

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About the Author: Shaun Booth is editor of MilwaukeeStory.com.

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  1. Larry says:

    Ron Paul is an isolationist and that is why I could never vote for him. It is scary to think he would not protect our country as commander and chief. He is great on the economics but that is not enough in these dangerous times.

    • Brian says:

      You don’t want us to distort your views would you? So please don’t distort Ron Paul’s views. He is an NON-INTERVENTIONIST. Not an isolationist, like North Korea.

      Don’t like his foreign policy? Check this:

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=I8NhRPo0WAo

      • Maggie says:

        Thank you for your post, Brian. I was just about to do that!!! Just think, with the non-help that the MSM has given Dr. Paul, along with the OUTRIGHT LIES AND DISTORTIONS about him and his policy, people are seeing beyond this, “Googling” Ron Paul to get more accurate information (read comments below the articles), I still have hope this great man will become the POTUS 2012!!!!

        Please, everyone, DO NOT LET THE GLOBAL MEDIA ELITE DECIDE OUR ELECTION!! We are out of time if we don’t change!

      • Ben says:

        Check out Brian’s video. It’ll explain a lot. The reason you don’t like Ron’s position is because you don’t have all of the information. Therefore, you don’t understand it.

    • Guy Montag says:

      Larry is your typical myopic chickenhawk, he’s ignorant of the facts and still hasn’t learned anything from the failures of the past 10 years.

      Our foreign policy is psychotic and the source of what fuels resentment towards the US.

      Millions of registered republican just like myself who bought the war propaganda last time, won’t get fooled again.

      Carry on with the sabre rattling Larry, but when you have a moment perhaps you could educate yourself as to why our MILITARY is supporting Ron Paul so decidedly.

      You might also provide an answer as to how you propose funding these crusades?

      Thanks for the chuckle!!!

    • Tony says:

      ever considered there is room for something other than invading, bombing and controlling the whole world as a US foreign policy? An isolationist state is North Korea. Ron Paul’s views are nowhere close to that but the brainwashed masses seem to think the only 2 options for US foreign policy is war/domination/bankruptcy versus crawl into a cave and hide from the world. US miliary power is beyond belief. The entire world has 15 carrier battle groups (i.e aircraft carrier with planes and support vessels) The USA has 11 of these. 1 each to UK, France, Russia and China and yet people like you are scared of Iran. Grow up!

  2. Corim says:

    Gingrich has no morals, the slimiest scum ever to creep out of the Washington D.C gutters. Obama is preferable, at least he has only one wife.

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